"A day like today is not a day for sound bites, really. But I feel the hand of history upon our shoulders. I really do," Tony Blair declared in April 1998, just before the signing of the Good Friday agreement in Northern Ireland. What a decade ago seemed like an intractable war in Northern Ireland - a bitter, divisive conflict inside the country, spilling out into mainland Britain and prolonged by an IRA mafia with Diaspora around the world - today looks like a genuine calm. Northern Ireland has genuinely benefited from Blair's hand of history and prospers in its new found peace.

Meanwhile, with more than 70,000 dead after a conflict between Tamil Tiger rebels and the Sri Lankan government that has lasted for nearly three decades, peace seems further away than ever in Sri Lanka - the forgotten island in South Asia. The civil war between the mainly Hindu Tamils and the mainly Buddhist Sinhalese erupted in the 1980s with Tamils pressing for self-rule.

While the majority of the fighting took place in the north and east of the country, Tamil Tiger rebels carried out devastating suicide bombings in Colombo in the 1990s. A ceasefire and a political agreement brokered by Norway in 2002 raised hopes for a peaceful solution, but with violence escalating in 2006 the conflict is once again turning into a fully-fledged civil war which the Tigers themselves are calling "the Final War".

The Tamil Tigers are a proscribed terrorist entity in thirty-two different countries. While they are infamous for their use of suicide bombers, what is less well known is that they run their own airports, arms procurement businesses and a bank. Their funding comes mostly from Tamil Diaspora in the UK, Canada and Australia, who are pressed into sending funds through Tamil Tiger fronts, particularly charities, to Sri Lanka, for fear that their relatives living in Sri Lanka will experience the full brunt of Tamil Tiger officials if funds do not materialize. The Tigers, like Al Qaeda, use criminal means to make up most of the rest of their funding, for example credit card fraud and trading in counterfeit goods. The group is advanced - garnering political support abroad, running a network of businesses, drug and arms running. The Tigers have been known to procure passports for Islamist terrorists and have proven themselves capable of air and sea attacks on Sri Lankan government service personnel, as well as civilian targets.

How much longer before the hand of history finds its way over to this beautiful island in South Asia to alleviate their seemingly intractable war?

On the one hand, things are not looking so good. The war has reached what can best be called a strategic stalemate, where the Tigers have retreated to their northern territories after large government gains in the East of the island. No decisive military victory seems likely for either side, despite the hawkish soundings from some in the government and the die-hard in Tamil ranks. Should government successes continue, it is likely the Tigers will go further underground and the current spate of killings may even increase - death squads weekly make Omagh seem like a fireworks party. The Norwegian peace talks - and the Norwegians are giving the talks their very best shot - are entered into with deep suspicion on each side, if not with some cynicism nowadays after ceasefires have collapsed. Ongoing military operations are daily undertaken by both sides, so peace talks stutter from day to day, rolling from one interrupted meeting to another. 

There is much negative news coming from the Tamil Diaspora. An all party parliamentary committee set up in the British parliament to look into the ongoing conflict has attracted little interest from serious politicians and instead has attracted the usual spattering of backbenchers and better known MPs such as the Liberal democrats' President, Simon Hughes and Labour's disgraced former Europe Minister Keith Vaz, both of whom have large numbers of Tamil voters in their respective constituencies. And - aside from the arrest of Chief Tamil Tiger Fundraiser AC Shaanthan in the summer - the UK police seem to be (understandably) focused more on Islamist terrorist activities than Tamil Tiger activities (cutting off Tamil Tiger funding would likely make the group take its role in the Norway peace talks more seriously). Sri Lanka deserves better. 

And while public opinion is by nature fluid, there is an almost inimical intransigency on behalf of the Sri Lankans in the South to see any kind of deal struck with the Tamils, let alone their Tamil Tiger representatives. A nasty atmosphere reigns in the country and amidst Sri Lankan commentators living outside of the island.  A constant sniping and demagoguery has emerged - part borne of the strategic stalemate, part the result of political infighting on both sides which hardly lends itself to generating light at the end of this thirty year tunnel.

Yet on the other hand - perhaps only visible to outsiders (most of whom, alas, do not care enough about Sri Lankans and their ethno-national problems so many miles away, isolated and adrift as they are by nature of being an island nowhere near anywhere of much world relevance in relation to any axis of evil or war on terror) - Sri Lanka has got so much going for it, all of which, with a great sea-change (excuse the pun, but the horrific 2004 tsunami showed some genuine Sinhalese-Tamil teamwork) could just attract history's hand away from wherever it has been hiding.

From the great Sinhalese and Tamil cultural heritages, to the attractiveness of Sri Lanka as a tourist destination, the island's modern, progressive economy, tropical climate and genuinely wonderful people (both the Tamils and Sinhalese are warm, proud, alluring people) - there are many positives. There are some extraordinary signs of Tamil-Sinhalese co-operation - most notably in the capital city Colombo where Tamils and Sinhalese seem to live happily side by side (like most people when distracted by city life and earning money). Tamil-Sinhalese "Sri Lankan" restaurants are taking the West by storm - some of the most popular dishes a fusion of Tamil and Sinhalese dishes. But above all unions is the national cricket team, made up of both Tamils and Sinhalese, who jump in each others' arms every time they get an opponent's wicket - Tamil record-breaking bowler Muttiah Muralitharan, affectionately known as Murali, is not just a Tamil hero, he's a national hero and adorns placards across the island. If only the warring parties would swap rifles for cricket bats and grenades for cricket balls - the national team (who just beat England, and easily, in a Test series in Sri Lanka) might be good enough to topple Australia.

Unfortunately much of the world doesn't appreciate cricket. In war zones it is invaluable - matches can occupy twenty four to thirty men (not to mention the crowds) for five whole days at a time. Sri Lanka's not an Islamist country and once-isolationist Americans don't seem to care about it much as they look abroad at the problems of Islamist enemies causing more unrest in the global village. The EU has other points of focus and no-one else is interested. Sri Lanka supplies troops to the UN, not vice versa. Meanwhile, the body bags seem to keep piling up.

This is a great tragedy because the Norwegian peace effort came so close to achieving a federal solution to the conflict in the nineties and this century just before the tsunami arrived. Ask Colonel Karuna - former Tiger - who split from the Tamil Tiger leadership allegedly (there's always argument in Sri Lanka over such matters) over their inability to accept a federal deal. Karuna has alleged, amongst other things, that the Tamil Tiger leadership intentionally dragged out peace talks so that the Tigers could use the cessation in hostilities to re-arm for further combat.

The most the rest of the world can seem to do for this Pearl of the Indian Ocean is send it its human rights investigators, who have a field day - justifying their western donors' monthly direct debits with report after report laden with human rights violations on both sides of the Sri Lankan conflict. The Human Rights situation in Sri Lanka has come under repeated criticism by human rights groups such as Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, as well as the United States Department of State and the European Union. Political killings, child soldier recruitment, abductions, armed clashes, violence against women, the death penalty and numerous reports of torture in police custody steal the headlines. (Northern Ireland was never the victim of so many reports). The words child and soldier cannot seem to be uttered at the tables of British dinner parties without mention of Sri Lanka - I for one tend to keep quiet, as my great grandfather lied about his age to go to fight in the Boer war and I can appreciate how young boys who have had their fathers murdered find it hard to do anything else but seek revenge.

As we sit back today and tuck into our turkeys and Christmas pudding, spare a thought for the forgotten island of Sri Lanka. It should be in our thoughts and in the planet's list of things to remember and fix for 2008. Enough is enough. To all my Sri Lankan friends - both Tamil and Sinhalese - I salute you. I wish you a better year and the inspiration to seize the peace you all so deserve. Do not despair - the Irish managed a seemingly workable solution and (though some Pakistanis may disagree) they are rubbish at cricket. Your solution is there and it's in your hands. 

Dominic Whiteman is the Editor of Westminster Journal and a Director of the investigative unit VIGIL www.vigilnetwork.com

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