On August 14, 1947, Pakistan stretched beyond its current boundaries. What was then called West Pakistan is now modern Pakistan. East Pakistan fought a bloody battle for its own independence, in which an estimated 3 million people were killed. In 1971 it became the autonomous secular nation of Bangladesh.

Last week's Independence celebrations, in marked contrast to previous years, were muted. A few cultural events were announced, but there was little enthusiasm. In Peshawar, the main city of troubled North West Frontier Province (NWFP), the celebrations were held indoors. NWFP, the home of Pakistan's Taliban, as well as the core leadership of al Qaeda, has become more riddled with unrest than it was under the last government.

On Monday, February 18, 2008 Pakistan held elections. The previous government had been dissolved on November 15, 2007 during a state of emergency instituted by President Pervez Musharraf. Despite the imposition of martial law from November 3rd until December 16, 2007, the outgoing government was the first since independence to have completed a full term of office.

Musharraf had participated in presidential elections on October 6, 2007. He won the vote, but the Supreme Court warned that he could not become president until a legal challenge had been addressed. During his state of emergency, Musharraf sacked numerous judges and replaced the Chief Justice, Iftikhar Chaudhry, with Abdul Hameed Dogar, a political ally.

The general election should have taken place in January this year. A solution favored by America had been for a power-sharing deal with Musharraf as president and Benazir Bhutto, head of the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), as the prime minister. Bhutto was assassinated on December 27th while campaigning. Her murder threw the country into social and political chaos. Many PPP supporters blamed Musharraf for her death.

Musharraf's temporary replacement will be Mohammed Mian Soomro, who acted as caretaker prime minister in the interregnum between the current and the last governments.

The decision by Musharraf to resign the presidency came hours before a motion to have him impeached was to be presented in the National Assembly. The decision to move to impeachment came from discussions between the leaders of the two parties that comprise the current coalition government.

Musharraf has been leader of Pakistan for almost nine years. After 9/11, he assured the United States that Pakistan would be a close ally in the War on Terror. While he was head of the army, Musharraf committed thousands of troops to NWFP to combat insurgents from the Taliban and Al Qaeda, but the Islamists still proliferated. The current government has attempted a policy of accords and appeasement to the Islamists in NWFP, and the region is now more volatile than it was a year ago.

A Weak Government

The other coalition partner in the government, PML-N (Pakistani Muslim League-Nawaz) is headed by Nawaz Sharif. This individual was ruled legally ineligible to hold a position of power. He had been a prime minister until ousted by Musharraf in a coup. In 1999, Sharif had tried to prevent Musharraf from returning to Pakistan. For this action against the head of the army, Sharif was convicted under terrorism laws and jailed for life. He was also given a jail term for corruption and tax evasion.

Later, after negotiations by the Saudis, Nawaz Sharif was freed on condition he left the country. After interventions in August 2007 by then-chief justice ftikhar Chaudhry, Sharif returned from his exile in Saudi Arabia on September 7th, but was immediately deported. Musharraf allowed him to officially return on November 25, 2007. On December 3rd it was ruled that Sharif's previous convictions ruled him ineligible to contest the election.

In the February 18th general election, Musharraf's PML-Q party suffered a massive defeat. The PPP won most votes, with PML-N in second place. The person who was chosen by the PPP to be prime minister was 55-year-old Syed Makhdoom Yusuf Raza Gilani.

Gilani's effectiveness as a leader, already compromised by being head of a coalition government, is further weakened by the interference and machinations of Asif Ali Zardari.

On May 12th, after the government failed to reinstate the judges who had been deposed by Musharraf, Sharif announced that all PML-N government ministers would resign.

Since the general election, Nawaz Sharif has tried to stand in by-elections held on June 26th. On June 1st, he was given permission to contest these by-elections, ut less than a week before the by-elections, Lahore High Court barred his participation. The Lahore constituency that Sharif hoped to contest had its by-election suspended while there were disputes over his eligibility for political office. So far, Sharif has not gained a seat in the National Assembly

The pressures made by Zardari and Sharif to force impeachment of Musharraf clearly show that these two figures, who hold no valid position within the government, see themselves as the true political leaders of Pakistan.

North West Frontier Province

When Nawaz Sharif was prime minister, his government imposed sharia law on NWFP, even though this action was ruled unconstitutional. The current weak government of Pakistan has tried to appease the Islamists of NWFP, in a vain attempt to bring peace to the region. The Pakistani Taliban claimed on March 30th that it would be willing to talk with the government.

The British government, whose Foreign Office sees nothing wrong with appeasing Islamists, announced in April its support for Pakistan's policy of negotiating with Islamists.

Swat is one region in NWFP that has been troubled by Islamist insurgents. The Swat Islamists' annexing of police stations and their successful attacks upon Pakistani troops were among the reasons cited for the initiation of the November 3rd state of emergency. On May 21, 2008, Gilani's government signed a peace accord with tribal leaders in Swat.

Shortly after the signing of the Swat accord Zardari, the power behind the throne, announced that more reconciliation would follow.

The Swat accord dissolved as militants fought with troops. At the end of July, nine civilians were killed during clashes between militants and troops. The fighting has continued unabated. This weekend, nine Islamists and one civilian were killed in further clashes in the Swat valley.

Unlike the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) which lie directly alongside the Durand Line dividing Afghanistan and Pakistan, Swat used to be regarded as peaceful. Sometimes called the "Switzerland" of Pakistan, the scenic Swat valley was until last year a popular tourist resort for Pakistanis. This month, Pakistan should be officially withdrawing its troops from the region, following the May 21st agreement. The chances of this happening while fighting continues seem remote.

The Future

Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, the son of Benazir Bhutto, claimed that with Musharraf's resignation "The biggest hurdle in the way of democracy is gone. Now the coalition government can move on and solve the problems of the people." Too young to take part in Pakistani politics, Bhutto Zardari has spent more time away from Pakistan than inside it.

In July 2008, Pakistan had an inflation rate of 24%. As well as the political and military problems facing the country, there have been problems with the supply of food and power. Prices of flour have been at their highest ever. Since December last year, Islamabad, the capital of Pakistan, has been beset by frequent interruptions of its electricity supply. Assuming the problems of leadership and the problems of terrorism can be solved, Pakistan will still have to address its financial worries.

Since 2001, the nation has received more than $10 billion in U.S. aid, with millions also donated by countries within NATO. In the 2007 fiscal year, more than $900 million of U.S. money was invested into Pakistan's economy. Despite accepting massive handouts and allowing foreign investments, a culture of patronage prevails in the nation, and corruption is endemic.

Anne W Patterson has been the U.S. envoy to Pakistan since May 2007. Before Musharraf's resignation, she had urged Nawaz Sharif to allow the former president "safe passage" out of Pakistan. Sharif had claimed at the start of last week that there should be no "safe passage" for Musharraf. On Monday last week Patterson met with Musharraf. It is believed she suggested he should resign, rather than undergo the process of impeachment.

On Friday August 15th, the Saudi head of intelligence, Prince Muqrin bin Abdul Aziz, visited Pakistan and urged a peaceful solution to the situation of Musharraf's departure from office.

Last week, Anne Patterson promised that the United States will continue to support the coalition government, but there have been tensions as a result of the way in which the government has handled the control of extremists in the borderlands of NWFP, adjoining Afghanistan. On Sunday, Condoleezza Rice ruled out any possibility that Musharraf could be granted political asylum in the U.S.

Musharraf's fate is uncertain, but so is the fate of Pakistan, and also the relationship between this government and the West.

On November 15th last year, Musharraf handed over control of the army to General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani. This individual was the head of the ISI (Inter-Services Intelligence), Pakistan's intelligence agency, between October 2004 and October 2007. Kayani is regarded as a "moderate" and was widely touted as an ally of the West.

The ISI has long had a poor reputation. Many of its former leaders have espoused Islamist ideas, and the Taliban was founded with the assistance of the ISI. This group is also accused of numerous disappearances of civilians. On Saturday, July 26th, prime minister Gilani announced that it would place the ISI under civilian control. However, the decision was reversed six hours later. ISI, currently headed by Lt Gen Nadeem Taj, would remain under military control.

Whether the government and the leadership of the army of Pakistan are genuine allies of the West or not remains to be seen. In April this year, NATO leaders claimed they wanted to "deepening" their engagement with Pakistan and to "support efforts to improve security and stability along the Pakistan-Afghanistan border."

Though NATO leaders are diplomatic about Pakistan's effectiveness at controlling the extremists along the Durand Line, neighboring Afghanistan is less reserved in its criticism. Last month, Afghan Foreign Minister Rangin Dadfar Spanta directly blamed cross-border violence upon "the de facto truce in the tribal areas beyond the border."

The head of Pakistan's Taliban is Baitullah Mehsud. In December last year, he was on an army hit-list. In May, he felt confident enough to give a press conference in his native region of Waziristan.

The Taliban do not recognize the Durand Line as a real frontier, and since the fall of the Afghanistan Taliban, they have freely passed across this border and back with impunity. On July 10th this year, Pakistan's foreign minister warned that Pakistan would tolerate no foreign troops inside its territory. Shah Mahmood Qureshi was referring to NATO foreign troops, rather than Afghan Taliban forces.

On the same day that the minister made his statement in the UN, Pakistani Taliban mounted a cross-border operation from a village in Wana in South Waziristan. They fired shells at a NATO post in Machi-dad in Afghanistan. The NATO forces retaliated with shells. One these hit a Pakistani military post, injuring three soldiers. In retaliation, the Pakistani army fired back, injuring Afghan soldiers. Two civilians were injured when an Afghan shell hit a market.

Two days later, Prime Minister Gilani repeated Qureshi's claims about Pakistan's sovereignty.

The future of Pakistan is now more uncertain than ever. If, as it claims, the coalition government can now act without impediments from the presidency, its performance will be placed under scrutiny. The coalition's performance so far has been less than lackluster, and a change of president will not suddenly inject it with efficiency and brilliance. Coalition governments are rarely either dynamic or inspiring.

With Musharraf no longer around, the government can no longer use him as a scapegoat for its own inefficiency and poor leadership. The PPP and PML-N parties made common cause around their opposition to Musharraf and his policies, such as the removal of senior judges. Their own policies are not entirely compatible. With both party leaders being personally ambitious but not ensconced within the National Assembly, there is a credibility gap that cannot be easily bridged. The glue that holds the coalition together could, under enough pressure, split apart.

For a while there will be a semblance of unity, and while there is apparent unity, there will be hand-outs from the international community. However, sooner or later the government must fulfill its pledge to deal with Pakistan's almost insurmountable domestic, social and religious problems. There are no guarantees that it can deliver on this promise.

 The Westminster Journal Current Affairs Editor is Adrian Morgan. Adrian is a writer and artist based in the UK.

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