The Middle East is in a new era, very different from the politics and strategic situation we have been used to for so long. For 55 years the region has lived under Arab nationalist dominance. Every Arab regime, except perhaps Sudan, is Arab nationalist, governed by that basic system and world view.

Of course, these regimes have governed badly, not keeping pledges to unite the Arab world, minimize Western influence, destroy Israel, or bring rapid social and economic progress. Still, they know how to stay in power. Remember that the last real regime change from within an Arab state happened 37 years ago when Hafiz al-Asad seized power in Syria. Since then, surprisingly little has changed in Arab ideology, political structure, economic organization, or society.

It has also been 28 years since Iran’s Islamist revolution took power in 1979. Since then—though not solely because of that event—Islamism has been on the upsurge. Certainly, it also suffered setbacks and almost three decades later Islamism had been unable to seize power anywhere, at least until Hamas’s recent triumph in Gaza.

What has happened now, however, is that radical Islamism has reached a critical mass. It now poses serious challenges to Arab nationalism as the leading opposition in every Arabic-speaking country. Islamism plays a key role in governing Iraq, Hamas defeated Fatah on the Palestinian front; and Hizballah is close to gaining at least equal power in Lebanon. 

The UN Security Council is scheduled to convene before the end of this month to debate the renewal of the UNIFIL forces mandate in South Lebanon. This European-led mission that comprises 13,600 troops was deployed in southern Lebanon in the aftermath of last year's war between Hezbollah and Israel in a bid to assist the Lebanese authorities in the implementing of UN resolution 1701. The Council is expected to renew the force's mandate unanimously for an additional year as of September 01/ 07.

The UN General Secretary in his report to the Council recommended the renewal of the UNIFIL'S mission for an additional year without any changes in its numbers, assignments or jurisdiction. He called on the 22 countries participating in this force to attend a closed session designated to discuss its role and means needed to strengthen its effectiveness and capabilities in order help in implementing the UN resolution 1701, function better, preserves its integrity, and ensure the safety of its members.

France, in coordination with Britain and the United States, has submitted to the UN Security Council a draft resolution demanding complete implementation of all the UN resolution 1701 clauses, notably the control and ban of weapons and men smuggling from Syria into Lebanon, the demarcation of the border with Syria, including the Shebaa Farms area, the continuing efforts to restore Lebanon's legitimate authorities over all the Lebanese soil, and to put an end to all violations of the Line Blue between Lebanon and Israel, etc.